Research

The advice is only as good as the count underneath it.

What the data layer is, how the method works, and every issue of the report.

A measurement layer, not a marketing exercise.

54%
Parcel-sum overstatement measured this issue — the full correction series is in the report
~220/yr
Settled dealings over $1.5M tracked — average of complete years 2021–2025

Underneath the agency sits a measurement system that ingests every settled commercial dealing the NSW Valuer General publishes for the Hunter — every price band, not just the headline deals — and turns it into quarterly, deal-level market measures. It counts and measures; it does not score, rank or recommend. The agency’s advice starts from what it counts.

Source: NSW Valuer General settled transactions, deal-level, corrected.

Methodology, in plain English

Settled records, counted once, with the thin cells marked.

Settled, not listed

Every figure derives from settled transactions in the NSW Valuer General’s record — contracts that completed, not asking prices.

Deal-level counting

The source records every parcel of a multi-parcel dealing separately, repeating the full price on each. We collapse to the dealing before any total, so one transaction counts once.

Suppression, not estimation

Any median resting on fewer than 5 dealings publishes as n<5 — marked, never estimated, in every table, chart and card.

Quarters are by contract date; the source publishes on notification, so recent quarters accrue late-notified dealings and revise upward. Vacant/improved classification is source-flag basis only.

The correction

Parcel-sum figures overstate this market — we publish both series so the correction is visible.

Summing parcel rows makes one dealing that sells five parcels for $X read as $5X. Over the full window since 2021, that overstates the Hunter’s $1.5M+ market by 54% at deal level. The chart shows both series, quarter by quarter — the gap is the correction.

54%
Parcel-sum overstatement, $1.5M+ segment, full window 2021 → 2026Q1
2025Q1$440.85M as recorded$338.45M deal level · +30.3% overstated2025Q2$570.43M as recorded$530.14M deal level · +7.6% overstated2025Q3$550.68M as recorded$532.30M deal level · +3.5% overstated2025Q4$888.14M as recorded$615.20M deal level · +44.4% overstated2026Q1$218.75M as recorded$204.92M deal level · +6.7% overstated
As-recorded parcel sum (hollow) vs deal-level value (gold), all recorded prices, trailing five quarters. The full series since 2021 is in every report issue.

Source: NSW Valuer General settled transactions, deal-level, corrected.

Report archive

Every issue, on the record.

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Hunter Commercial Market Report — 2026 Q1In preparation
Hunter Commercial Market Report — 2025 Q4In preparation

The report

Our advice starts from research we publish.

The 2025Q4 Hunter Commercial Market Report is the research base behind every mandate: the quarter in five numbers, the parcel-sum correction, volume and price by LGA since 2021, and every thin cell marked n<5 rather than estimated.

83
Dealings, $1.5M+ · 2025Q4
$488.05M
Total value, deal level
$3.00M
Median price, $1.5M+

The PDF link arrives at this address. Nothing else does.

Source: NSW Valuer General settled transactions, deal-level, corrected.